Welcome to Portfolio Cafe’s newest site version.  If you are a regular visitor or a member…thank you for your past and current support.  If you are just discovering Portfolio Cafe for the first time…welcome to the world of rules-based investing. Your portfolio will thank you later.

This is the fourth version of the site and I think the best one yet.  I’ve taken member feedback and I have tried to include as many of the suggestions as possible.

Tactical ETF Models​

I began publishing my models in 2009…when the first version of the site went live.   Some of the models themselves have been around for longer.  There are eight ETF models….so in all, I have published well over 700 monthly returns since the start.  What’s important to know is that every single monthly number has been recorded as they occurred.  The results are what they are.  And they must not be too bad because I am fortunate to say that some of the very first subscribers remain active today.  Thank You!

Further, with the exception for a few ETF universe edits (in cases where an ETF became delisted or I was not satisfied with the trading volume and a better substitute was found), none of the models have been touched.  Meaning…the rules I started with remain the rules I continue to use today….and what I plan on continuing to use.

On Building Rules-Based Models…

It is my belief that a good system should be relatively simple…with the bare number of model inputs to get the job done. Add too many and the complexity increases as does the chance that we end up curve fitting to get optimal results…which lessens the chance we can repeat our “in sample” test results in the future.    Fortunately, the models continue to work and deliver results within the range of expectations.    I often run across systems that work well with only one market.  A robust system will work well across many.  The basic engine that runs the ETF models is the same across a broad range of asset classes that includes fixed income, U.S. stocks, international stocks, emerging markets, real estate, and commodities.

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” – Albert Einstein

Our newest model, Keystone, has become Portfolio Cafe’s flagship model.  Designed to serve as a total portfolio, the model has performed well.  Going forward, Keystone will be only available to members of our Platinum membership which includes access to all of our published models.

Keystone will also serve as the core holding within our automated advisor offering that we are calling Portfolio Cafe Advisor.  Basically, this services is set up to provide members with a hands-free trading of our models.  We provide an award winning financial app that goes well beyond portfolio reporting and we provide access to an experienced, licensed financial advisor to speak with for no extra cost.   And, we now have added Fidelity as a custodian for customer accounts.

Quantitative Stock Models

In addition to the ETF models, Portfolio Cafe also publishes eight rules-based stock models.  Those will remain the same for now.  The existing models cover most of the bases….small cap and large cap…growth and value….and several emphasize dividends.   I am always open to suggestions for new ideas so don’t hesitate to let me know if there is something you’d like to see that isn’t in the current lineup.  You can get in touch with me here.

More on Adaptive Asset Allocation & More…

Going forward, this blog will focus content around a few core themes:  systematic investing, especially adaptive asset allocation; factor investing for stocks; addressing the special needs of retirement investing, behavioral finance, and exposing the “Myths of Wall Street”.  For now, the old blog posts have been archived but those posts that still remain relevant will get a second appearance.

As always, I welcome feedback from readers so please feel free to leave a comment or send me an email.

Share This